What the Medal Count Means

Vancouver, British Columbia

For the second straight Olympics, The Wall Street Journal's method of handicapping the medal count produced some strong results—and a few that were less than glowing.

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Biathlete Magdalena Neuner helped Germany live up to our lofty prediction.

The Vancouver Olympics closed on Sunday with a spectacular finale of fireworks and a star-studded celebration. Video courtesy of AFP.

The results point to three conclusions about the Games: The U.S. had a serious breakthrough, the Austrian ski team may be in serious trouble and nobody suffered more for the lousy Canadian weather than the Canadians themselves.

Let's start with the good calls we made. The Journal's prediction of 10 gold medals for the U.S. was just one more than the final tally. Germany won 10 golds and 30 medals overall, which was nearly identical to our prediction of 10 and 29. Canada's haul of 14 golds, which broke the Winter Games record of 13 shared by Norway and the Soviet Union, came as a surprise to many—but it was only two medals more than our model had anticipated.

The Journal's predictions, which were compiled by assigning probabilities to medal contenders in each event and using them to perform computer simulations of the Games, showed Norway winning seven golds and 21 overall (they won nine and 23). It had China and Korea both winning five golds (China won five and Korea six). We had the Netherlands winning three golds and eight medals in total (they won four golds and eight overall).

The more instructive results were the ones we got wrong. We never foresaw France winning 11 medals (the model had them at five) but their biathletes came up big. Whoever is responsible for training that team deserves the Legion of Honor.

We remain furious with the Austrian ski team, which chose these games to show some alarming signs of weakness. We thought the legendary Austrian skiers would lead the way to six golds and 19 overall medals for their country, but they basically didn't show up at Whistler. They collected just four medals, only one of them gold, in what has long been considered the country's national sport.

Associated Press

Alpine skier Manuel Osborne-Paradis underperformed for the Canadian Olympic team.

We weren't surprised that Canada and the U.S. cleaned up, winning 63 overall medals. In fact, we thought they would win 70. But we had the portions backwards: The Journal had Canada winning a Winter Games-record 37 medals, rather than the U.S. team, which actually did.

The U.S. surge came largely from breakout performances in several "traditional" Olympic sports like Alpine skiing, where the U.S. won a surprising eight medals. And in Nordic combined, the U.S. picked up three silvers and a gold largely from three athletes it has been developing for the better part of the past 15 years—Bill Demong, Johnny Spillane, and Todd Lodwick. In the end, the combination of granular snow, home-continent cooking and the familiar time zone and climate helped the U.S. own the podiums. "We just feel really comfortable here," said Andrew Weibrecht, the U.S. skier who won the bronze medal in the men's Super-G.

As for the Canadians coming up short, we'll stick with one of the larger themes of the Vancouver Games by blaming the weather. With little snow at Cypress Mountain in December and January, the Canadians couldn't get the sort of extra practice on the home freestyle skiing and snowboarding courses a home team usually gets.

It's always tempting to look at the results and make some ambitious declarations about the future. This time, the question seems to be whether 2010 heralds a new era of North American dominance in the Winter Olympics.

OLYMPIC VITALS: Click on the interactive to see data from Olympic nations -- from average amount of alcohol consumed to the number of McDonald's restaurants they have in their countries.

History suggests something larger may be at work. Through the Cold War, the Soviet Union and East Germany came to dominate the Winter Games. But since the collapse of the Berlin wall, North America has been steadily gaining ground on Europe, with a slight hiccup in 1998 in Nagano, Japan.

In 1988 in Calgary, the last Soviet-era Games, the U.S. won two golds and six medals overall, tied for eighth place in total medals, while Canada captured no golds and five overall and tied for 10th. Sweden, Norway, Finland, Austria and Netherlands all finished higher, despite their huge size disadvantages. By 2006, The U.S. totals had climbed to nine and 25, (2nd place) and Canada's were up to seven and 24, (3rd place).

Not surprisingly, Europeans don't necessarily see it that way.

Luciano Barra, the former Turin Olympics executive and a noted medals prognosticator, isn't buying the idea. "The Games were in North America," he said. "Do not forget that the snow condition and other elements were not in favor of Europe."

Jacques Rogge, president of the International Olympic Committee, didn't see a trend developing, either. "You still have the same countries that are the powerhouses of winter sports," he said Sunday, noting the U.S., Canada, Germany and Norway had fared well.

"The games evolve around these very strong nations," he added. "There are always ups and downs. It's clear the Russian federation isn't very happy with their performance. It's not like in Athens, where we saw the rise of Asia. But I don't see a big trend here as a change. It's confirming what's happened before."

Write to Matthew Futterman at matthew.futterman@wsj.com

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