Friday, October 21, 2011

The Early Verdict on Tim Tebow

After taking over as the quarterback during Sunday's game against San Diego, Tim Tebow of the Denver Broncos faced what would almost surely be the final play of the game. With his team down to the Chargers' 30-yard line trailing by five points with one second left, he heaved the ball into the end zone hoping for a miracle. It wasn't to be.

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Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow delivers a pass during Sunday's game against the San Diego Chargers.

But even as the Broncos fell to 1-4, Tebow's near-comeback in front of the hometown fans added heat to one of the most rancorous debates in the NFL: Whether Tebow should be the starting quarterback for the Broncos and, more broadly, whether this hugely popular athlete has the elite mix of skills one needs to be an NFL quarterback in the first place.

The Broncos brass seem to be coming around. "I think Tim Tebow sparked the team today," head coach John Fox said after the game. He didn't name Tebow the starter, but added that the quarterback position would be "up for discussion."

The fans are pretty much there already. Tebow, who came to prominence at Florida—where he led the Gators to two national titles and won the Heisman trophy—is about as popular as a football player can be.

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Not only did he win at a big school with lots of alumni, he cultivated a following among fellow Christians, who appreciate his outspokenness on matters of faith. Despite his limited success since the Broncos made him the No. 25 pick in the 2010 NFL draft, his jersey is a huge seller and fans have taken to chanting his name when current starter Kyle Orton struggles.

The good news for Tebow fans is that their hero didn't play badly.

Put in in the second half after the Broncos fell behind 23-10 at halftime, Tebow ran for a touchdown and threw for another, bringing the Broncos within six points. He ran for 38 yards on six carries and completed 4 of 10 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. Tebow supporters trumpeted his 7.9 yards per passing play, a number that's often a fair measure of a quarterback's ability, and his 6.3 yards per carry, which is better than any starting running back in the NFL. But a close review of the tape suggests that his performance won't set many questions to rest.

One of the knocks on Tebow is that his throwing arm, and throwing motion, aren't up to NFL standards. Tebow's touchdown pass was a short screen over the middle to Knowshon Moreno that, by any standard, was the kind of pass a Pop Warner quarterback should be expected to make. Because Moreno ran 28 yards after the catch, the play accounted for 35% of Tebow's total passing yards.

The rest of those yards came on two pass plays on the final drive when the Chargers' defenders were hanging back and giving him the short middle of the field. The first of those last-minute throws was a 20-yard pass to Brandon Lloyd that was originally called incomplete, but later was ruled a completion upon review. On the bright side, Tebow made the right read on the play. The Chargers defense played conservatively, staying behind Denver's receivers and leaving Lloyd open underneath. Even though the Chargers had only three pass rushers—and Tebow had five seconds to let go of the ball—he made the throw awkwardly while leaning slightly back and lifting his left foot off the ground. The ball sailed above and behind Lloyd, forcing him to make a one-handed grab as he fell. It was a brilliant catch on a poorly thrown ball.

The second throw went for 31 yards to Daniel Fells. Again, the Chargers sent just three pass rushers and played so far back they left the middle of the field wide open. Tebow's throw took a full seven seconds—an eternity in the NFL. Because the catch was made in the middle of the field, the clock couldn't be stopped. It also looked as if another receiver, Matthew Willis, was open on the right sideline. Had Tebow found him, it would have given the Broncos a few extra plays to try to score.

More concerning for the Broncos are the routine throws Tebow missed. One pass in particular stands out: With 11:49 left in the game, the Broncos had a chance to sustain a drive and march down the field. After Tebow scrambled for five yards, the Broncos faced a third down with a manageable four yards to go. The Chargers gave Tebow an easy defensive look. They lined up in a base 4-3 (four down linemen and three linebackers) and didn't do anything complicated with their pass rush.

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Tebow's blockers gave him plenty of time, and he bought some more by rolling out to his left. Because he's left-handed, this should have made it easy for him to make a dump-off pass to Willis, who was open just beyond the first-down marker. Unfortunately, The ball was way off target and the Broncos were forced to punt.

With 3:15 left in the third quarter, Tebow could have created a chance for the Broncos to convert an important third down On third and seven.

Tebow took the snap out of the shotgun. Broncos tight end Daniel Fells helped get a partial block on Chargers defensive end Shaun Phillips, then darted out to the flat. With the Chargers backed up deep to protect against the pass, Fells was wide open and had the right side of the field almost to himself.

Had Tebow thrown him the ball, the 6-foot-4, 252-pound Fells would have been left with one man to beat: cornerback Dante Hughes, who is six inches shorter and 60 pounds lighter. The play almost surely would have yielded a first down. Instead, Tebow rolled left and overthrew Eric Decker, who was also open, although deep in the middle of the field.

The other classic knock on Tebow is that his running ability, which was a game-changer in college, will be more of a dangerous liability in a league where everyone is two steps faster and 50 pounds heavier. On one run, a five-yard scramble up the middle in the fourth quarter, he decided not to slide and took hard hits from two linebackers as he went down. In the NFL, hits like those will eventually knock a quarterback out of a game. These punishing blows have a way of finding quarterbacks who can't rely on their arms to move the ball.

The highlight that got the most air time on TV after the game was a 12-yard quarterback keeper in the fourth quarter. Here we saw Tebow take the snap from shotgun and cut left, darting up the middle behind his left guard, then dart back to the right and accelerate in a straight line toward the end zone, tucking the ball and lowering his shoulders before landing in the end zone practically untouched. Not to rain on the parade, here, but the credit belonged to the line, who plowed a hole for Tebow the size of a milk wagon.

After the game, Tebow was positive. "I did some things well and some things I need to work on. I will go back and look at the film and see exactly where we are at." He said he felt rusty at first, but eventually gained rhythm on the field. "I just had to get in the flow of the game a little bit and get the feel for it. It's been a while."

On Monday, Broncos head coach John Fox said in a press conference that a final decision hadn't been made, and that he'd likely address the quarterback situation Tuesday.

If Tebow does become the starter, the Broncos have a week off to spend extra time working him into the game plan before taking on the winless Miami Dolphins. Let's hope their film projector works.

Write to Reed Albergotti at reed.albergotti@wsj.com
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