Tuesday, August 2, 2011

The Old Men on the Mountains

[OLDSKIIER] Agence Zoom/Getty Images

Swiss downhiller Didier Cuche, the favorite.

Vancouver, British Columbia

Didier Cuche is an Olympic senior citizen at 35 years years old, so you might assume that his event is curling. But instead of pushing a stone across the ice Saturday, Mr. Cuche will be careening down an icy slope at 80 miles an hour as the gold-medal favorite in the men's downhill competition (if the race isn't postponed by weather).

The Swiss skier is in good— and aging—company. In 1980, the top 12 finishers in the Olympics' downhill event averaged a young 23.6 years. This year's top 12 men's downhill skiers are ancient by comparison: 29.9 years.

"It's become an event that's all about experience," said Phil Mahre, who won silver and gold medals in the slalom in the 1980 and 1984 Olympic Games. "And it's a lot more technical than it's ever been."

Despite its reckless abandon, downhill has always been friendlier to veteran skiers than other Alpine events. The turns in slalom and giant slalom can wear on aging knees in ways that the bomb-and-tuck style of the downhill race does not. So it's not surprising that this year's slalom and giant slalom skiers are nearly 2½ years younger than their downhill teammates.

But changes in the nature of competitive skiing and advances in ski technology are making the downhill race even more of a haven for the veterans of the world's most famous downhill runs. Among these new factors: fewer training runs, chemicals that make the snow harder and faster than ever, and a new generation of dramatically curved slalom skis. It's hardly surprising that the venerable Mr. Cuche is a favorite for the gold. He turned in the fastest training run Wednesday, before the run was canceled for fog. (He was disqualified in Thursday's training run for missing a gate.) He is joined on the list of skiers who are expected to do well by two other relative old-timers, Austrian Michael Walchhofer, who is 34, and American Bode Miller, who is 32. Liechtenstein's Marco Buechel is 38.

Of course, younger skiers have come out of nowhere to shock the Olympics before, most notably American Bill Johnson, who took the downhill gold at age 23 in 1984 in Sarajevo. But downhill skiing is unique among the skiing disciplines in that its courses hardly change from year to year. In slalom, giant slalom and super giant slalom, which is known as SuperG, the course changes depending on how race managers set up the gates through which the athletes ski. In downhill, skiers race down essentially the same course year after year, whether at Colorado's Beaver Creek or Vail resorts, or Europe's legendary downhill runs, such as Wengen, Switzerland, or Kitzbuhel, Austria.

[SP_HOL1] Reuters

Austrian Michael Walchhofer, above, and Bode Miller atop the downhill course on Wednesday, below.

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The more times they race down a course, the more familiar they become with what skiers call the "line" of the slope, which means the most direct route from the top to the bottom. Skiers with the greatest familiarity of the line know the high-speed adjustments they need to make as they approach the treacherous turns and jumps of a typical race.

"There is no way to plan for these big events other than to have been there before," said Mr. Miller. "If I come in and race hard, it comes down to whether I can make the tactical decisions to make it down error-free."

Making matters more challenging for young downhillers is the now-common practice of injecting a course with water to ensure that the slope remains consistent for every competitor throughout a race day. With that consistency come icy-hard and lightning-fast conditions that put a premium on split-second decisions made by instinct and experience. "It's the judgment factor," said John McMurtry, the former Alpine coach for the U.S. ski team. "And it takes years to develop that judgment."

Especially now. Mr. Mahre said that when he was on the World Cup circuit, organizers would allow competitors to take four or five practice runs on the course before the actual races. Now, partly because the World Cup circuit includes more events, training runs have been cut back to just one or two for each downhill race.

"Used to be you could get 15 or 20 runs on a course within a few years," Mr. Mahre said. "Now it'll take you 10 years to get up to that level."

For many younger skiers, though, those years aren't wasted. Instead, they are using the sharp reflexes and fast-twitch muscles of their youth to win slalom and giant slalom events, which require a series of jagged turns through gates. As those physical advantages begin to deteriorate in their mid-to-late 20s, the aging skiers begin to gravitate toward the speed events, like downhill.

Since the 1990s, slalom skiers have used skis that are shaped like a parabolic arc—skinny in the middle and widening toward the tips. While the shape makes it easier to carve out the quick turns of a slalom, the skis put tremendous torque on the knees and lower legs, body parts which only hurt more as skiers age.

"I've seen people blow out their tibia and fibulas just by going through a turn," said Picabo Street, the silver medalist in the Olympic downhill in 1994.

American skier Bode Miller first broke onto the World Cup skiing circuit in 1997 as a top slalom racer out of New Hampshire. His first World Cup downhill victory, however, didn't come until 2004, when he was 27 years old. This year, the downhill and SuperG are considered his best shots at the podium, though he may also be a contender in the downhill-slalom combination event known as Super Combined.

Brandon Dyksterhouse, who grew up racing with Mr. Miller and is now the head Alpine coach at the Green Mountain Valley School in Vermont, which trains some of the country's best young skiers, said Mr. Miller is lucky to have made it into this stage of his career without having blown himself into pieces. "If you can hang in without breaking your body apart, there's no reason you can't stay competitive until you're 40."

Write to Matthew Futterman at matthew.futterman@wsj.com

slalom skiers, slalom skis, phil mahre, michael walchhofer, downhill skiers, marco buechel, giant slalom, didier cuche, alpine events, reckless abandon, gold medals, 1984 olympic games, old timers, downhill race, senior citizen, bode miller, 12 men, slalom, swiss skier, olympic games

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What the Medal Count Means

Vancouver, British Columbia

For the second straight Olympics, The Wall Street Journal's method of handicapping the medal count produced some strong results—and a few that were less than glowing.

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Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Biathlete Magdalena Neuner helped Germany live up to our lofty prediction.

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The Vancouver Olympics closed on Sunday with a spectacular finale of fireworks and a star-studded celebration. Video courtesy of AFP.

The results point to three conclusions about the Games: The U.S. had a serious breakthrough, the Austrian ski team may be in serious trouble and nobody suffered more for the lousy Canadian weather than the Canadians themselves.

Let's start with the good calls we made. The Journal's prediction of 10 gold medals for the U.S. was just one more than the final tally. Germany won 10 golds and 30 medals overall, which was nearly identical to our prediction of 10 and 29. Canada's haul of 14 golds, which broke the Winter Games record of 13 shared by Norway and the Soviet Union, came as a surprise to many—but it was only two medals more than our model had anticipated.

The Journal's predictions, which were compiled by assigning probabilities to medal contenders in each event and using them to perform computer simulations of the Games, showed Norway winning seven golds and 21 overall (they won nine and 23). It had China and Korea both winning five golds (China won five and Korea six). We had the Netherlands winning three golds and eight medals in total (they won four golds and eight overall).

The more instructive results were the ones we got wrong. We never foresaw France winning 11 medals (the model had them at five) but their biathletes came up big. Whoever is responsible for training that team deserves the Legion of Honor.

We remain furious with the Austrian ski team, which chose these games to show some alarming signs of weakness. We thought the legendary Austrian skiers would lead the way to six golds and 19 overall medals for their country, but they basically didn't show up at Whistler. They collected just four medals, only one of them gold, in what has long been considered the country's national sport.

[medal2] Associated Press

Alpine skier Manuel Osborne-Paradis underperformed for the Canadian Olympic team.

We weren't surprised that Canada and the U.S. cleaned up, winning 63 overall medals. In fact, we thought they would win 70. But we had the portions backwards: The Journal had Canada winning a Winter Games-record 37 medals, rather than the U.S. team, which actually did.

The U.S. surge came largely from breakout performances in several "traditional" Olympic sports like Alpine skiing, where the U.S. won a surprising eight medals. And in Nordic combined, the U.S. picked up three silvers and a gold largely from three athletes it has been developing for the better part of the past 15 years—Bill Demong, Johnny Spillane, and Todd Lodwick. In the end, the combination of granular snow, home-continent cooking and the familiar time zone and climate helped the U.S. own the podiums. "We just feel really comfortable here," said Andrew Weibrecht, the U.S. skier who won the bronze medal in the men's Super-G.

As for the Canadians coming up short, we'll stick with one of the larger themes of the Vancouver Games by blaming the weather. With little snow at Cypress Mountain in December and January, the Canadians couldn't get the sort of extra practice on the home freestyle skiing and snowboarding courses a home team usually gets.

It's always tempting to look at the results and make some ambitious declarations about the future. This time, the question seems to be whether 2010 heralds a new era of North American dominance in the Winter Olympics.

[medalsvsgdp_pro]

OLYMPIC VITALS: Click on the interactive to see data from Olympic nations -- from average amount of alcohol consumed to the number of McDonald's restaurants they have in their countries.

History suggests something larger may be at work. Through the Cold War, the Soviet Union and East Germany came to dominate the Winter Games. But since the collapse of the Berlin wall, North America has been steadily gaining ground on Europe, with a slight hiccup in 1998 in Nagano, Japan.

In 1988 in Calgary, the last Soviet-era Games, the U.S. won two golds and six medals overall, tied for eighth place in total medals, while Canada captured no golds and five overall and tied for 10th. Sweden, Norway, Finland, Austria and Netherlands all finished higher, despite their huge size disadvantages. By 2006, The U.S. totals had climbed to nine and 25, (2nd place) and Canada's were up to seven and 24, (3rd place).

Not surprisingly, Europeans don't necessarily see it that way.

Luciano Barra, the former Turin Olympics executive and a noted medals prognosticator, isn't buying the idea. "The Games were in North America," he said. "Do not forget that the snow condition and other elements were not in favor of Europe."

Jacques Rogge, president of the International Olympic Committee, didn't see a trend developing, either. "You still have the same countries that are the powerhouses of winter sports," he said Sunday, noting the U.S., Canada, Germany and Norway had fared well.

"The games evolve around these very strong nations," he added. "There are always ups and downs. It's clear the Russian federation isn't very happy with their performance. It's not like in Athens, where we saw the rise of Asia. But I don't see a big trend here as a change. It's confirming what's happened before."

Write to Matthew Futterman at matthew.futterman@wsj.com

magdalena neuner, austrian ski team, 10 gold medals, medal contenders, spectacular finale, alarming signs, canadian weather, five golds, wall street journal, computer simulations, winning 11, medal count, legion of honor, winter games, serious trouble, skiers, probabilities, france presse, getty, canadians

Online.wsj.com

Westfalia, Costa Rica

photo

Westfalia, Costa Rica

Along highway 36 just south of Limon, cr. Pending storm from behind me blocked the sun but was kind enough to cast a little light on the Caribbean Sea.

Tags

Costa

Rica

Westfali

Canon

60D

eos

dslr

beach

sur

sea

Carribean

rainforest

jungle

inlet

Limon

caribbean sea, westfalia, limon, cr, sun

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nit d'esperana tot aprenent

photo

nit d'esperana tot aprenent

aprenent a fer foto d'estels.... ara la via lctia ja s ms aparent.....

Tags

estels

stellarium

phtographer

ephemeris

photo

nit

night

note

buit

noche

stars

L'alzina d'Aliny

Aliny

lactea

lactia

aparent online, nit

Flickr.com

Monday, August 1, 2011

Post Experts Pick the Winners

Today's selections from Saratoga.

DaSilva25/90
( $208.80)

Fountaine26/90
( $158.00)

Affrunti19/90
( $137.80)

1

All Quiet
Weak Dollar Policy
Belle Muse

Weak Dollar Policy
Chickatari
All Quiet

Belle Muse
All Quiet
Moshe Diane

2

Quebrada Shiner
Strike the Bell
Karakorum Elektra

Quebrada Shiner
Out Post
Strike the Bell

Out Post
Quebrada Shiner
Legally Blanca

3

Windafull
Atitlan
Knock Quietly

Windafull
Mightylover
Atitlan

Nykid Time to Jazz
Mightylover
Atitlan

4

Parcel
Thomas Is Rockin
East Indies

Parcel
Play It Smart
Gunman

Gunman
Play It Smart
Fu Pegs Baby

5

Champagne Run
Counterspy
Bid a moon

Counterspy
Champagne Run
Lady Jadana

Counterspy
Island Bound
Champagne Run

6

Paci Di Notte
Jaded Lover
El Dreamer

Diceman
All Class
Strolldownbrdway

Diceman
El Dreamer
Paci Di Notte

7

Katy Now
Decelerator
Kid Kate

Lisa's Booby Trap
Kid Kate
Decelerator

Decelerator
Lisa's Booby Trap
Katy Now

8

Justin Phillip
Travelin Man
Arch Traveler

Caleb's Posse
To Honor and Serve
Arch Traveler

Justin Phillip
Caleb's Posse
To Honor and Serve

9

By M K
Holy Spice
Spa City Lover
Dixieland Cowgirl

Ohbabyobeyme
By M K
Holy Spice
Spa City Lover

By M K
Bayshore Blaze
Salt Water Lullaby
Holy Spice

Debbie L.33/90
( $189.30)

Vic C.20/90
( $126.70)

Consensus32/90
( $194.80)

1

Weak Dollar Policy
Moshe Diane
All Quiet

All Quiet
Weak Dollar Policy
Gin Cat

Weak Dollar Policy 16
All Quiet 15
Belle Muse 6

2

Quebrada Shiner
Full of Gut
Legally Blanca

Full of Gut
Devilish Spirit
Out Post

Quebrada Shiner 18
Out Post 9
Full of Gut 8

3

Atitlan
Mightylover
Windafull

This Hard Land
Atitlan
Komisarek

Windafull 13
Atitlan 13
Mightylover 9

4

Parcel
Gunman
Thomas Is Rockin

East Indies
Parcel
Gunman

Parcel 18
Gunman 10
East Indies 6

5

Counterspy
Bid a Moon
Champagne Run

Counterspy
Champagne Run
Bid a Moon

Counterspy25
Champagne Run 13
Bid a Moon 5

6

Paci Di Notte
Diceman
All Class

Diceman
Paci Di Notte
El Cuadro

Diceman 18
Paci Di Notte 14
All Class 4

7

Decelerator
Katy Now
Lisa's Booby Trap

Buckleupbuttercup
Lisa's Booby Trap
Ailalea

Decelerator 14
Lisa's Booby Trap 12
Katy Now 9

8

Justin Phillip
To Honor and Serve
Redeemed

Travelin Man
Justin Phillip
Redeemed

Justin Phillip 18
Caleb's Posse 8
Travelin Man 8

9

By M K
Ohbabyobeyme
Spa City Lover
Dixieland Cowgirl

Holy Spice
Spa City Lover
Ohbabyobeyme
By M K

By M K 18
Ohbabyobeyme 9
Holy Spice 9
Spa City Lover 5

Consensus is based on 5-3-1 point system. Extra point given for BEST BET.

booby trap, dollar policy, saratoga, muse, vic, moon

Nypost.com

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Heron on the look out

photo

Heron on the look out

Tags

bird

canada

goose

heron

nature

pool

water

wildlife

Dudley

England
Flickr.com

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Jets cut Brunell, but he may return

The Jets made some moves with their backup quarterbacks yesterday in an effort to clear some cap space before their pursuit of prized free agent Nnamdi Asomugha fizzled.

The Jets first released veteran backup Mark Brunell, but a source said Brunell will re-sign with the team at a lower salary figure. The Jets then waived Kevin O'Connell, according to sources.

If Brunell does return, he will be the team's No. 2 quarterback behind Mark Sanchez with draft pick Greg McElroy most likely serving as the third quarterback. Brunell joined the Jets last season, and clicked with Sanchez. He played in just two games, but he is seen as a mentor for the Jets third-year starter.

O'Connell came to the Jets in 2009 from the Lions after the Patriots had released him a few weeks earlier. He never gained traction with the team and was released last season before re-signing a short time later. He suffered a torn labrum last year that he is trying to come back from.

The Jets also waived quarterback Erik Ainge, who spent last season on the reserved/did not report list after entering drug rehab.

*

The Jets signed three of their draft picks yesterday, striking deals with running back Bilal Powell, a fourth-round pick and both of their seventh-round picks -- McElroy and wide receiver Scotty McKnight. That leaves three draft picks unsigned, including first-rounder Muhammad Wilkerson.

*

After losing punter Steve Weatherford to the Giants, the Jets signed Chris Bryan, an Australian who punted in four games for the Buccaneers last season. . . . The Jets lost cornerback Drew Coleman, who signed a three-year deal with the Jaguars with a max value of $7.4 million, per a source. . . . Multiple reports had the Jets making an offer to safety Eric Smith to return.

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Nypost.com